We're exchanging jokes, they're getting more surreal until cousin H says Why did the leaf rip up itself? ... I don't know!

Iris has abrasions and a bruise across her neck. 2 plastic tables have neck sized holes. A surprise she says.

'I am hapee that you a my mum. My mum dus the dishis. My mum reeds to us. I love my mum.'

Iris told me she will be dreaming of dancing on ice-cream tonight. I think I will too.

'Mummy, mummy, dear little mummy, just don't look at me!'

Lie down, rest your body, close your eyes, and think nice thoughts.

'Watch the disc all the way into your hands.' I did and seeing my hands catch it was quite exciting.

Oops, asked three Movembers to dinner at once. Moverload.

'You're having troubles 'cos we're going the other way.' 'I'm not having any troubles. My troubles're having trouble w. me!'

Likely as not.

You know that probabilities multiply, right? Of course you do, but I'm going to tell you anyway.

For our first child there was a 50% chance of having a daughter, for our second child there was a 50% chance of having a daughter, so our chance of having both children be daughters was only 50% * 50% = 25% (Arthur and Corwin, Arthur and Iris, Hazel and Corwin, Hazel and Iris ftw!!!)

If you have to roll 7 or less on a d10 for your character to succeed at, say, climbing a wall, and you have to roll two times because the wall is high you only have about half a chance of success because 70% * 70% = 49%

So, as it happens, two 70% chances having to both succeed in order to get complete success (not falling off the wall) is about 50% and so are three 80% chances and six 90% chances.

70% * 70% = 49%
80% * 80% * 80% = 51.2%
90% * 90% * 90% * 90% * 90% * 90% = 53.1441%

In Ultimate we are often faced with a choice between a shorter pass to someone no closer to the zone than the thrower or a longer pass further up the field which may well have a smaller chance of success. If a pass fails then there's a turnover and we have to get the disc back off the other team or they score.

In order to avoid the other team getting the disc from us we are often advised to use short safe passes and listening to team-mates' commentary we often seem to feel that throwing a good pass that was only just missed is somehow morally better than throwing a less sure thing that was caught. Yet six 90% passes are mathematically only as good as one 53% pass, so if your not-sure-thing hugely reduces the number of passes needed to get a point it may be mathematically as good as using shorter passes and more dump options as they take more passes to get to the other end of the field. Shorter passes that make less ground also makes it more likely the disc will become the other team's nearer their end zone.

What chance of success a given pass has is not just about how much of the field it flies over. Long passes are not necessarily more risky than short: a 10° error looks bigger further away from the thrower but a catcher who is further away has more time to read the disc and get to the place the disc is coming to. Chance of success depends on the weather, the thrower's current condition, skills and abilities, and those of the catcher, the markers of both, and what all the other people on the field might do. There are too many variables changing too fast to tell what percentages to assign to two passes as we choose between them, nor would numerical values be useful. We have to just do it; kinesthetic tasks are best performed using the evolved and embodied distributed intelligence of the human animal rather than trying to organise responses from some sort of analytical central point-of-view that calls itself "I".

In conclusion: perhaps short safe passes aren't the only good option and it might be me to whom you throw it long and I love the running and the disc flying and floating and reaching out to snap it out of the air.

Book

Would I like to write a book?
I suspect so.

What would I like to write a book about?

The power's off. Northland's gone all bird song and susurruss.

Hazel had a fever this morning so we have to take it easy and look after her this sunny day.

Movember

Donate at http://www.movember.com/nz/donate Number 149551 (not me, but RincewindTVD who I picked because he also needs mascara to make his moustache camera-ready).

Iris and I went to town, we danced in Midland Park, ate strawberries and she fell in the fountain.

Waiting for the win-win situation to emerge.

The other day Iris and her cousin H had a completely incommensurable difference. H wanted 5 more pick up sticks and 4 marbles. Iris wanted all the pick up sticks. I talked, listened, and eventually Iris went off to do something else.

While I was doing such a delicate thing I was totally engrossed in the moment, and H and Iris, and so when I'd finally got to the end I looked up to see what was going on with my adult guests and I discovered I'd had an audience. They had interestingly varied expressions. Shannon's looked like professional respect, Traveler's like a tourist watching a police negotiator (a little mind-blown but interested), and Sean and D both seemed to be feeling profound relief that it wasn't themselves in the hot seat that time.

Yuk! Someone has used soap with my toothbrush! Guess I won't swear again.